Dow ECM-The Dow could possibly crash into Oct

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Sep. 2, 2022: Next Monday is Labor Day which is a holiday in the United States. Dow Jones Industrials closed below our indicating ranges on the Daily level. The market closing today at 3131844 is immediately trading down about 13% for the year from last year's settlement of 3633830. At present, this market has been rising for 2 months going into September reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 3118209 while it's even trading beneath last month's low of 3150959.

Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction rally from the low established during June. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

Our next daily target is Tuesday September 6th. The next Weekly target for a turning point will be 08/29/2022 whereas the strongest target ahead on our Weekly Array will be 10/10/2022. This also falls within the next target on our Monthly Array will beSeptember which is also a Panic Cycle. Looking beyond the next key Monthly turning point in the Array we come to September which is a Panic Cycle suggesting that will perhaps become the next target thereafter.

The Dow Jones Industrials opened within last year's trading range which was 3667944 to 2985630. Right now, the market is still trading inside last year's trading range with the last print at 3131844. The last time such a similar pattern took place was 1960. Nonetheless, the market is trading below the opening print for the year which was at 3632159. As long as this market remains trading below 3330297 on a closing basis, then a similar year-end closing in this posture will warn that we could have a knee-jerk low in place this year.

Economic Confidence Model CORRELATION

Here in Dow Jones Industrials, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Mon. Apr. 10, 2023. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2007 and 2000.

OUR CURRENCY CORRELATION MODELS

The Dow Jones Industrials did make a high in conjunction with the British pound on 06/01 yet in nominal terms the last high was created on 01/01 whereas the high in Australian dollar took place on 06/01, a high in the Canadian dollar was established on 06/01, a high in the Japanese yen was established on 06/01, a high in the Swiss franc was established on 06/01, a high in the Euro was established on 06/01, and a high in the Chinese yuan was 06/01.

In terms of a Basket of Currencies, we see that here this market has been neutral both in nominal and basket terms. In international terms, we have a divergence whereby this market last reached a high in nominal terms on 01/01 after the high in terms of a basket of currencies which came on 06/01 implying that this immediate rally is purely in domestic terms.

WEEKLY TIMING ARRAY PERSPECTIVE

was the week of August 29th with the opposite trend implied thereafter into the week of September 5th which is a Directional Change. The next target will be the week of September 12th which implies it may be a low if it penetrates the week of August 29th at least intraday. We have overall 3 Weekly Directional Change targets ahead and 2 that also align with the main turning points on the top line of the Array. Therefore, the targets should be an important target. These targets in time are the week of September 5th the week of October 31st. Directional Change targets that align with the top line for turning points often unfold as the main cyclical events. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction.

MONTHLY TIMING ARRAY PERSPECTIVE

September, which requires caution since this is also a Panic Cycle Target with the opposite trend implied thereafter into October which is a Directional Change. We have overall 2 Monthly Directional Change targets ahead which align with a main turning points on the top line of the Array. Therefore, the targets of April 2023 should be an important target. Directional Change targets that align with the top line for turning points often unfold as the main cyclical events. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction.

We closed the previous month at 3284513Immediately, the market is somewhat bearish on our monthly indicating range models as was the case last month.

END OF QUARTER

The projected overhead technical resistance stands at 3461190. The projected technical support resides at 2796543. The next Quarterly Minor Bullish Reversal stands at 4036444 with the next Quarterly Major Bullish Reversal standing at 4862804. The next Quarterly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 1967780 whereas the next Quarterly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 2985620. Immediately, the market is neutral on our indicating range models. However, the monthly level remains moderately bearish for now yet the weekly level is distinctly bearish. We also have a Minor Monthly Bearish which is closer to the market right now. This resides at 3001480 and therefore, even a month-end closing below this would signal a further retest of support is likely.

Since the last trading day of this month and quarter happens to also be the end of a week, then we additionally have Weekly Reversals coming into play as well. The next Weekly Minor Bullish Reversal is standing at 3136760while the Major Weekly Bullish stands at 3475530. However, the next Weekly Minor Bearish Reversal is to be found at 3063560 while the next Major Weekly Bearish Reversal is located at 3098280.

Therefore, when we put this all together, the various timing levels require our focus on the following Bearish Reversals for the close of this quarter. The numbers to watch are: 3098280, 3001480, and 2985620.

BROADER OVERVIEW

The Dow Jones Industrials has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2009 moving into 2022, which has been a run of 13 years warning that timing wise a pause remains possible. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

This past year alone, saw a price decline of about 2.54% yet it closed higher settling at 3633830.

HYPOTHETICAL MODEL ANALYSIS

Engaging our Tentative Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Weekly Bullish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new low penetrating 3118209. These Tentative Hypothetical Bullish Reversals would stand at 3297204, 3323537, 3357975, and 3428136, whereas a close above the previous high 3232516 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Hypothetical Bullish Reversals will then become fixed as long as the low holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bullish Reversals during that session would signal a bounce is unfolding and that such a low may stand. However, if we continue to make new lows, then these WHAT-IF Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the low becomes fixed.

REVERSAL SYSTEM

Considering our Reversal System, our next Daily Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 3287760 while the Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 3111430. This provides a very near-term 5.85% trading range. Using the Weekly level, the next Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 3291020 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 3098280. This provides a 5.85% trading range. Now moving to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 3509160 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 3001480. This, naturally, gives us the main broad trading range of 14%.

WIDE-RANGING CLOSING TREND CHANGE POINTS

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily… 3215060
Weekly… 3176729
Monthly… 3191935
Quarterly… 3047917
Yearly… 1768855

Note: This indicator identifies the tone of the market on each time level. A positive number indicates the market is still in a bullish posture on that time level. Negative numbers indicate that the market is in a bearish posture on that time level. The indication is provided only on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level. When a major turning point is approached according to our yearly models, ECM, and timing arrays, then you can move from the higher levels to the lower to exit a market closer to the turning point.

At present, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 3327234 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

RISK FACTORS
Dow Jones Industrials Risk Table

— UPSIDE RISK — DOWNSIDE RISK ---

DAILY… 3287760 | 4.978% | 3111430 | 0.651% |
WEEKLY… 3291020 | 5.082% | 3098280 | 1.071% |
MONTHLY… 3509160 | 12.04% | 3001480 | 4.162% |
QUARTERLY… 3326000 | 6.199% | 2985620 | 4.668% |
YEARLY… 4272141 | 36.4% | 2171240 | 30.67% |

NORMAL DAILY TRADING ENVELOPE
Last Close Was. 3131844

Envelope Top… 3468674
Internal AvgL… 3150629
Internal AvgH… 3241029
Envelope Btm… 3063308


PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading BELOW all three indicating numbers and that leaves this in a bearish position currently with resistance at 3152328, 3160024, and 3215346 for this next trading session.

DAILY PIVOT POINTS
3152328
3160024
3215346

Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at, 3146369, 3149512, 3202518, 3230850. Keep in mind that these targets can provide intraday resistance or closing resistance. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

RECREATING TIME

Based upon our What-If Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Fri. 2nd would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all What-If Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are what-if reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.

[Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.]

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Moving averages and stochastics are nice confirming tools. They are incapable of forecasting a high or low. They also do not reflect the magnitude of a move. They can be a useful confirming tool, but nothing to actually enter a trade on that is consistent.