В
этом посте я разбирал сентимент на нефтяном фьючерсе, данный трейд является частью того анализа.
На дневном графике цена нефти ударилась в эти сильные уровни сопротивления и ушла вниз, т.к. на этом техническом анализе в рынок можно посадить много медвежьего объёма. Какой смысл улетать наверх и не замечать эти уровни, если на них кукловод может увеличить свою позу и заработать ещё больше денег? В таких ситуациях тех.анализ работает, но смысл этих линий не такой, как думает большинство трейдеров.
На часовом графике медведям продолжали рисовать линии и уровни, на пробой которых они продавали. Это ещё сильнее увеличивало перевес в сторону медведей, т.е. на рынке продолжал увеличиваться шортовый открытый интерес.
Читать дальше...
FYI.
North Sea
Market analysis: Activity picked up in
a hectic North Sea crude MOC process Monday, with
11 bids and offers shown. While Forties strengthened
further as more July dates came into the window, Ekofisk
plunged to take the place of the most competitive
BFOE grade across most of the 10-25 day range, with
a June 22-24 Ekofisk cargo offer published at Dated
Brent plus $0.85/barrel still finding no buying interest.
Oseberg was the most competitive grade over the
remaining four dates at the back end of the range,
July 1-4, after subtraction of the July Oseberg Quality
Premium (0.9131). The softer numbers seen on Oseberg
and Ekofisk were related to the higher volumes in July
programs compared to June, said traders, even if this
was only due to deferrals. “I see 300,000 b/d higher
overall [North Sea] production in July, but barrels are
also leaving the region,” said one trader. “The key
question is how much WAF arrives in Europe. Angola
[crude] doesn’t usually come into Europe, it is usually
Nigerian, but I think it has to come.” The pick-up in
Forties differentials for July dates seemed to be related
to the belief that two VLCCs-worth of Forties was set
to arbitrage out of the region in July. While no actual
July fixtures have been reported for this route yet, there
was a June-loading fixture Monday: the Grand Lady
VLCC was fixed to Vitol for a Hound Point-South Korea
voyage, according to several shipbrokers. The vessel,
owned by East Med Maritime, was reportedly fixed at a
$4.5 million lump sum for loading June 16, the first day
Hound Point’s VLCC berth is available after maintenance.
This was not generally seen as additional to the July
volumes of Forties said to be leaving the region however:
“You’ve probably heard of two July VLCCs to China,” said
a trader. “My feeling is this is one of them. It’s just for
pricing reasons, they preferred to load early.” Another
trader said: “The question is whether that [VLCC] is
an additional one. They could slow steam it, or sit in
Crude oil Marketwire june 9, 2014
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial 5
water for a while.” The Forties June 15-17 cargo was
bought last week by Vitol at Dated Brent minus $0.95/b,
whereas the first three days of the July program were
bid for Monday at Dated Brent plus $0.60/b without
trading. Outside the MOC, activity was subdued Monday
with holidays across much of Europe, and none of
the Norwegian July programs had been offered yet,
said traders. “Statoil is not in today — no numbers
discussed yet on sweet grades,” said one trader. Value
on grades such as Statfjord and Gullfaks remained
opaque, said traders. “I haven’t seen July offers yet,”
said one. Meanwhile the one cargo for which Monday
was the last day of entry into the 25-day nomination
procedure, Forties F0704, was not nominated.
либо будет так, либо уйдёт вниз без меня…