We have the ultimate bearish sentiment here. Just look at the imbalance in the volume of put options, which is twice as much as in calls. On Tuesday we got big trades in options block trades, Bid imbalance of order flow and so rejection. But on Friday the pressure of sellers continued to increase and we closed before the the last frontier.

 

As you remember, bid HFTs’ on the level of support means that with a high probability, it will be broken, as smart money and market makers more often sell in levels of support, than buy from them as we used to.

 

I assume that we will reach the 467,75 price level and touch all the liquidity that is concentrated under the demand zone. And I put my alert there. (Watch) 

 

And only then the price will go to the upside, as hedgers are very active in buying wheat from trend-following hedge funds for such a cheap opportunity.

 

I am sure that we are on the verge of a big upside movement in grains, but it is impossible to provide it without the kicking of the passengers.

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Good evening, traders! 

 

Today observed all the assets, but exceptionally don’t see potential understandable scenarios 🤷‍♂️ Everything went on Thursday and Friday.

 

🔹 British pound this week showed us how amazing involvement in buys looks like. (Watch) 

How long does it take for the pattern to be created and how quickly should a decision be made on it, — only 15 minutes after the formation of HFT volumes. So fast reaction from the market makers limit orders.

 

Our mind is rather inert and in good situations, he especially begins to hesitate “Can we wait a little more, maybe a little more to see what will be around the corner?” As a result, the next 15-minute candle already changes the risk-reward ratio by 2 times! Not in our favor...

 

An excellent quote by Linda Raschke fits here: “In trading, as in fencing, there are either quick or dead.”

 

Markets operations are based more on psychology than on fundamentals, says El Weiss in Jack Schwager's book “The New Market Wizards”. “Markets are completely based on human psychology, and by charting markets, you are only converting human psychology into graphical form.”

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Good morning, Traders! 

Today I finally made a short but very intense review of the most interesting current imbalances on the most liquid instruments of commodities, currencies and indices. 🤩


A fresh view on Coffee (KC), Corn (ZW), Crude Oil (CL), Brent (BR), S&P500 (ES), Natural Gas (NG), British Pound (6B), Euro (6E), Mexican peso (6M).

Really a lot of peculiar market pictures to workout the following week 💪

This 10 minutes video is ready for your attention! 👇
 



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Good evening,  traders!

 

One week passed and in a row that was really amazing forecasts. Platinum and Swiss frank went perfectly to their targets. Gold also proceed with its bullish behavior.

 

Only the Japanese yen did not live up to expectations, who is going to move stop after this?

Who proceeds to trade martingale? Managing risks is most important for us, traders.

 

This week I take your attention on Wheat (ZW), Natural Gas (NG), and US treasuries (UB).

 

This 12-minute video is for you today  

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​​Hello Traders!

🔻 I see a very peculiar picture in Platinum (PL). As always: stops — rejection — involvement — rejection. And here we have 2 targets: 1020 — short term target on the 15M chart and 1060 target on the daily chart. We see how OI decrease during the last down wave. Sellers and buyers close their positions. But from the previous COT report Funds even doubled their longs from 3K to almost 7K longs, and I hope they will continue to do this at this discount. (See)

🔻Next, I expect a short continuation in Soybeans (ZS). 1770 was a beautiful sell entry point under the stopping HFT volumes level. But according to the strong effort and the low result of the delta, it was necessary to ensure who will win in this battle and somehow join the winner. Honestly, I could not do it, but it was worth it. The peak of growth in volatility and purchases of call options has already been passed and traders will continue to close their hedges. (See) 

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Сейчас сложно будет ставить вероятностные сценарии, волатильность зашкаливает

Лучше ориентироваться на ленту принтов и дисбалансы в моменте для краткосрочных сделок. Риски нужно уменьшить как минимум в 2 раза, стопы увеличить на ту же величину. Но тем ни менее глобальный взгляд также стоит иметь. Известный валютный трейдер Брент Доннелли пишет: “Хорошие трейдеры всегда имеют план. Они не всегда придерживаются его, но он у них есть.” Потому будем продолжать смотреть на факты и делать гипотезы.

По СП500 ( ES) очень интересно, что фонды до событий вышли в экстремальный лонг, нарастив покупки на 25%.  На самом минимуме был большой объем закрытых позиций по путам, и добавление колл опционов на страйке 4400, в преддверии внушительного отскока. Крупные игроки, как это часто бывает, совершают сделки в выгодных местах.

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На каких активах товарного, валютного рынка, а также индексах, работает стратегия дивергенции кумулятивной дельты по объему КД и агрегированной дельты по количеству тиков (сделок) КДК? 

Практически на всех, лучше дождаться своего рынка и своей ТВХ, которую видно невооруженным увеличительными приборами глазом.



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