4.1 Scenario 1: The Russian economy keeps growing, Nord Stream 2 will be completed, gas demand will rise sharply and Gazprom must pay out 50% of its net income. (probability: 55%)

This scenario offers a huge investment opportunity because Gazprom will increase its earnings significantly. If Nord Stream 2 and the Power of Siberia achieve a 100% workload while gas prices in Europe and Chine rise and capex falls, Gazprom can easily double its net profits and will achieve average annual earnings of at least 100 rubles per share. If Gazprom is forced to raise the payout ratio to 50% (= 50 rubles), buying the shares now could lead to outstanding returns. A fair share price would be in the range of 800-1000 rubles which is an increase of 425%-550%.

4.2 Scenario 2: Nord Stream 2 will be cancelled but gas demand rises in Asia and the payout ratio increase to over 30%. (probability: 30%)

This scenario is not realistic because Nord Stream 2 has strong support in Europe and the pipeline is right on schedule. However, even in the case of Nord Stream 2 cancellation, Gazprom is strong enough to increase its earnings because of the strong demand in China and the Power of Siberia which will add 38 bn cubic meters per year to the company's annual gas supply. A cancellation of the China pipeline won't happen because the political relationship between the two countries is good and both parties are in favour for the Power of Siberia. It is likely that China will ask for a second pipeline which is already discussed at Gazprom. This scenario will increase Gazprom's average annual earnings for the next decade to 75-80 rubles per share and provides a dividend of 24 rubles. A fair share price would be in the range of 500-600 rubles which is an increase of 225%-300%.

Утром в среду сенатора от Карачаево-Черкесии Рауфа Арашукова задержали после заседания Совета Федерации. В задержании приняли участие генеральный прокурор Юрий Чайка и глава Следственного комитета Александр Бастрыкин. Следственный комитет сообщал, что появились данные о причастности сенатора к убийствам зампредседателя молодежного движения «Адыгэ-Хасэ» Аслана Жукова и советника президента КЧР Фраля Шебзухова, а также другим преступлениям.

Также был задержан отец сенатор – советник гендиректора ООО «Газпром межрегионгаз» Рауль Арашуков, подозреваемый в причастности к хищению газа на 30 млрд рублей. 
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На весну ожидаю опережение Газпромом индекса РТС на 15-20%.